Thursday, November 8, 2007

Media Campaign Coverage

According to's national Republican Presidential Primary page, Giuliani continues to enjoy a substantial lead over Thompson, McCain, and Romney.

But if you look at the State Primary polls (scroll down for links), Romney has solid leads in Iowa and New Hampshire with positive trend lines.  He and Giuliani are pretty much tied in Nevada.  Giuliani leads in South Carolina (barely), Florida, and Michigan (also barely), but his trend lines are all slipping.  Giuliani doesn't enjoy any comfortable leads anywhere except California and New York.

Why isn't this a bigger story?  If the early races really are as important as everyone seems to think, Giuliani will be out of the race long before the California and New York primaries.  Not to mention the fact he's clearly slipping everywhere except Nevada, where he's only just regained the top spot from Romney.

If you believe that the early primaries are the key to the nomination, and if you believe the polls (and the national media gives every impression that they believe both), then you've got to be looking at Romney as a real front-runner, televangelist endorsements notwithstanding.

My take:
1. The polls are unreliable indicators.
2. The national media want Giuliani to win, thus they continue to push the Giuliani-leading-national-polls angle along with the Robertson endorsement.

AND: It should be noted that Romney is investing the bulk of his time in Iowa and New Hampshire.  The two states that are seeing the most of him like what they see.  I wonder if he's planning to branch out a bit more now that his lead seems to be solidifying.