Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts

Monday, November 21, 2016

Progressivism Indicted

Two interesting indictments of the progressive movement. First Mark Lilla, a historian at Columnia, with an op-ed in the New York Times:

It is a truism that America has become a more diverse country. It is also a beautiful thing to watch. Visitors from other countries, particularly those having trouble incorporating different ethnic groups and faiths, are amazed that we manage to pull it off. Not perfectly, of course, but certainly better than any European or Asian nation today. It’s an extraordinary success story.
But how should this diversity shape our politics? The standard liberal answer for nearly a generation now has been that we should become aware of and “celebrate” our differences. Which is a splendid principle of moral pedagogy — but disastrous as a foundation for democratic politics in our ideological age. In recent years American liberalism has slipped into a kind of moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message and prevented it from becoming a unifying force capable of governing.

He concludes:
Some years ago I was invited to a union convention in Florida to speak on a panel about Franklin D. Roosevelt’s famous Four Freedoms speech of 1941. The hall was full of representatives from local chapters — men, women, blacks, whites, Latinos. We began by singing the national anthem, and then sat down to listen to a recording of Roosevelt’s speech. As I looked out into the crowd, and saw the array of different faces, I was struck by how focused they were on what they shared. And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are. 
Pretty strong stuff, to accuse progressives of abandoning FDR's principles.

John Tierney levels the second indictment in The Real War on Science - The Left has done far more than the Right to set back progress (City Journal). He notes that conservatives don't have much impact on science on way or the other, and finds the Left presents two "huge threats" to science.
The first threat is confirmation bias, the well-documented tendency of people to seek out and accept information that confirms their beliefs and prejudices. In a classic study of peer review, 75 psychologists were asked to referee a paper about the mental health of left-wing student activists. Some referees saw a version of the paper showing that the student activists’ mental health was above normal; others saw different data, showing it to be below normal. Sure enough, the more liberal referees were more likely to recommend publishing the paper favorable to the left-wing activists. When the conclusion went the other way, they quickly found problems with its methodology.
He includes a long list of examples where groupthink and dogma have set back both social and physical science. And that leads "to the second great threat from the Left...":
...its long tradition of mixing science and politics. To conservatives, the fundamental problem with the Left is what Friedrich Hayek called the fatal conceit: the delusion that experts are wise enough to redesign society. Conservatives distrust central planners, preferring to rely on traditional institutions that protect individuals’ “natural rights” against the power of the state. Leftists have much more confidence in experts and the state. Engels argued for “scientific socialism,” a redesign of society supposedly based on the scientific method. Communist intellectuals planned to mold the New Soviet Man. Progressives yearned for a society guided by impartial agencies unconstrained by old-fashioned politics and religion. Herbert Croly, founder of the New Republic and a leading light of progressivism, predicted that a “better future would derive from the beneficent activities of expert social engineers who would bring to the service of social ideals all the technical resources which research could discover.”
This was all very flattering to scientists, one reason that so many of them leaned left. The Right cited scientific work when useful, but it didn’t enlist science to remake society—it still preferred guidance from traditional moralists and clerics. The Left saw scientists as the new high priests, offering them prestige, money, and power. The power too often corrupted. Over and over, scientists yielded to the temptation to exaggerate their expertise and moral authority, sometimes for horrendous purposes.
Those "horrendous purposes" include, but are not limited to: eugenics, insecticide hysteria, bad health science on salt and fat, and last but not least climate change.

Tierney concludes:
To preserve their integrity, scientists should avoid politics and embrace the skeptical rigor that their profession requires. They need to start welcoming conservatives and others who will spot their biases and violate their taboos. Making these changes won’t be easy, but the first step is simple: stop pretending that the threats to science are coming from the Right. Look in the other direction—or in the mirror.
I would suggest that it cuts both ways. Politicians should stop proclaiming themselves scientific experts. And voters need to be more skeptical of politicians' appeals to science, as well as their appeals to morality, religion, and tradition.
 

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Arctic Ice Tipping? Maybe Not

BBC News reports a Danish research team is suggesting that the Arctic ice tipping point is not likely under current conditions.
Dr Funder and his team say their data shows a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. The researchers concluded that for about 3,000 years, during a period called the Holocene Climate Optimum, there was more open water and far less ice than today - probably less than 50% of the minimum Arctic sea ice recorded in 2007.

But the researcher says that even with a loss of this size, the sea ice will not reach a point of no return.

"I think we can say that with the loss of 50% of the current ice, the tipping point wasn't reached."
Hmm.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Solar Power from Orbit

So beamed solar power has been discussed for a while, but it's never been more than science fiction. It still hasn't happened, but according to MSNBC.com it's looking...imminent.

Sounds like a great technology to me, but with some caveats. The collectors would be very high efficiency (no atmosphere to deal with), but the capital expense must be enormous. Especially since they'd need to be deployed higher than most satellites (I would guess near or higher than geosynchronous, which is ~38000km), otherwise they'd suffer the same nighttime occlusion that plagues earthbound solar collectors.

Oh, and while collection would enjoy high efficiency, transmission would still have to deal with atmospheric effects. Also, transmitting megawatts through the atmosphere is bound to have side effects (I would think the heat bloom would be substantial), but maybe they've got a solution for that.

Edit: Meant to quote this...
Unlike ground-based solar arrays, space satellites could generate power 24 hours a day, unaffected by cloudy weather or Earth's day-night cycle. The capacity factor for a ground-based solar is typically less than 25 percent. In contrast, the capacity factor for a power-generating satellite is expected to be 97 percent, Marshall said.
That's the issue that virtually all solar power promoters elide. They focus on max power production, and ignore the average, not realizing that the nature of solar power and Earth's curvature require you to provision two to three times as much solar generation as you would coal- or gas-based.

When you consider the number of collectors you have to build, as well as the number of power lines, solar looks a lot less environmentally attractive. The space-based solution goes a long way to neutralizing that issue.

(And yes, I realize the article says solar's capacity factor is less than 25 percent, suggesting you'd have to build four to five times as much solar capacity. That would be true if power consumption were uniformly distributed over the 24 hours in a day. But power consumption falls significantly at night, meaning nighttime areas wouldn't be drawing as much, requiring less power capacity.)

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Finally Someone's Serious About Solar

Solar power has a major drawback: it only works part of the day. In most locations, energy production drops significantly after a few hours, and vanishes entirely at night. This means solar can only be used during the day, and therefore cannot be used for primary base generation. There are two strategies for overcoming this problem: store excess energy for use during off-peak hours, or transmit excess energy from areas in peak hours to areas in non-peak hours. Neither strategy has been very feasible--batteries are inefficient, and global(!) transmission lines are prohibitively expensive.

So this is cool: Store solar heat in molten salt. It's not a slam dunk solution, but it's definitely better than anything else anyone's come up with.

(h/t JustOneMinute)

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

HAR1

Glenn Reynolds linked to this Freeman Dyson interview. Dyson seemed to be particularly excited about something called HAR1. This is a small patch of human DNA that has experienced significant evolution since the human and chimp species diverged from their common ancestor six million years ago. Dyson doesn't mention there are 48 other DNA regions that have also changed in the last six million years, just not as much as HAR1.

The research team that discovered the region don't know yet what that particular patch of DNA actually does. But it seems to be related to brain development.